STRATEGIC COERCION – HAS IT FAILED IN IRAN
Oct 2013
INTRODUCTION
1. Iran is a country that has gone through a large amount of turmoil in recent history, particularly in the second half of twentieth century and later. The spread of colonialism and struggle for supremacy between imperial powers in the 19th and 20th century had its effects on Iran too along with almost all the other nations in the region. For most part this period there was deep routed foreign intervention in Iran with the Global Powers - Russia and Britain initially and USA after the Second World War- dominating Iran’s economy and manipulating its leaders[1].
2. Iran’s nuclear programme has direct links to the cold war and traces its origins to the initial years of the cold war era. It was ironically initiated by the very power that today is in the forefront of containing Iran’s growing nuclear ambitions; the United States of America. Enriched Uranium was supplied to many countries including Iran by the USA as part of a cold war programme by the name ‘Atoms for Peace’[2]. Though the Uranium was intended for use in civilian research reactors, they were potent enough to be used in nuclear bombs. Relations between USA and Iran underwent a reversal following the Islamic Revolution of 1979 in Iran. With no more American Support, Iran sought Russian help in the nineties to continue with its civilian nuclear programme. First Iranian nuclear power plant was officially opened on 12 Sep 11 with Russian assistance[3].
3. Iranian nuclear programme has been viewed with suspicion by the western world for most of the past decade. The west, led by USA, has accused Iran of embarking on a nuclear weapon programme. This has led to the west imposing a number of economic and military sanctions on Iran to coerce the nation into abandoning its nuclear programme. IAEA report of Nov 11 on Iran’s nuclear programme revealed efforts aimed at developing a nuclear weapons capability[4]. Subsequently, stiffer sanctions were imposed on Iran. Iran on its part has been defiant towards the western persuasion. The country has all the while maintained that its uranium enrichment program will continue and that its nuclear programme is intended only for civilian use. Iran has asserted that she will not bow to international pressure and will continue with her nuclear programme.
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN IRAN
Recent History of Iran
5. Of all countries in the Middle East, Iran was the one that was most affected by World War II. The occupation by Soviet and British forces that lasted from 1941 to 1945 brought about strong political and social changes in the country. Britain withdrew from Iran post world war II, though British influence still held sway. Ruler of Iran, Reza Shah, with help from his western allies, succeeded in ensuring Soviet withdrawal from parts of its territory occupied by USSR. At this time, Iran was firmly in the pro-American camp[5] and the USA never let go of the opportunity to use Iran as a platform to counter the Soviet influence.
6. Even after the British withdrawal from Iran, her oil resources still remained under the control of a British company[6] – the Anglo Iranian Oil Company- which contributed significantly towards the British economy while the Iranian population continued to remain in poverty. The Shah’s position was challenged by the National Front leader Mohammed Mosadeq who was widely respected in the country. Mosadeq became the Prime Minister in 1951 and went on to nationalise the Iranian Oil Industry. This met opposition from Britain who used all possible means to force an international boycott of Iranian oil. Fearing that Mosadeq would gradually lean towards the Soviets, US secret services with help from British agents and Iranian corroborators staged a coup in Tehran which ousted Mosadeq and installed the Shah as the undisputed leader of Iran[7]. This was a turning point in Iranian nationalism and the beginning of decades of anti American sentiments in the region. Many Iranian leaders of future would later say that this was the day when the USA took the entire nation of Iran hostage.
7. Reza Shah ruled the country with an iron fist with support from America, leading into widespread resentment amongst the population. Social reforms introduced by Shah, termed as the ‘white revolution’, in the sixties invited more opposition, particularly from the clerics and stimulated the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in the Middle East[8]. All of these culminated in the Islamic Revolution of 1979, overthrow of the Shah Regime and acceptance of Ayatollah Khomeini as the supreme leader of Iran. This was the starting point of Iran’s deteriorated relations with the West in the coming decades. Strong anti American sentiments harboured by the Iranian population, coupled with USA providing asylum to the deposed Shah led to the Iranian hostage crisis of 79-80 when 52 personnel of the US embassy staff in Teheran were held hostage for 444 days[9]. This incident was the last nail in the coffin for the already tense relations between USA and Iran.
8. Ali Khamenei who succeeded Khomeini in 1989 continues todate as the supreme leader of Iran. Successive presidents have tried to restructure the nation, build industries and rejuvenate the economy. Most notable amongst these was Mahmood Ahmedinijad, who held office of the president from 2005 till 2013. He openly defied western pressure on Iran’s internal affairs, confidently asserted his voice in international forums and revived nationalist spirits in the country. Iran which went through extreme struggles during the Iran-Iraq war of 80s and the post war period has been successful in standing on its own and emerging as a growing power in the region.
Iran in an Isolated Environment
9. The divide that was formed between Iran and the West, particularly the USA, as a result of the Islamic Revolution and the events that followed was never bridged and has continued to grow till this date. A series of sanctions were inflicted on Iran in the later years. Immediately after the crisis began, a ban on US import of Iranian oil was imposed. All property within US jurisdiction owned by the Central Bank and Government of Iran were blocked and an embargo on US exports to Iran was placed. USA, which was an ally of Iran till 1979, sided now with Iraq during the Iraqi attempt to invade parts of Iran and the subsequent Iran-Iraq wars of 80s. USA declared Iran as a sponsor of International Terrorism subsequent to the 1983 bombing of the US embassy and marine barracks in Lebanon[10]. By 1986, Iran was prohibited from receiving arms from US and most western countries. Iran was isolated within the Middle East too, mainly for the fear of spread of the revolution[11] and partly because of western pressure.
10. Post disintegration of USSR in 1991 and end of cold war, priorities of USA and the west now shifted to wide ranging issues from Weapons of Mass Destruction to human rights violations across the world. As western efforts focused on actions against unpopular governments, the nineties saw large scale increase in sanctions on Iran. Many of the decisions during this time were taken based on perceived realities and the continued resistance by Iranian administration to tow the western line. Many a time these decisions, driven by internal compulsions within USA, were politically incorrect and helped only to cement the anti western sentiment in the country.
11. Successive US presidents and the western governments continued the policy of political blockade of Iran through coercive diplomacy. With increasing isolation of the country both in the region and in the western dominated international community, the quest for self sufficiency gathered impetus in Iran. Large scale industrialization of the country was initiated and help was sought from China and North Korea, who still depended on Iranian Oil, and Russia to help her establish on her own in various fields. By the beginning of the 21st century, Iran had acquired a certain degree of self sufficiency in most fields, particularly in the three key areas of Industry, Agriculture and Military. Completing of Bandar Abbas refinery in 1997 on their own, development of indigenous fighter aircraft (Azaraksh), war ships and accomplishment of missile project (Shahab series)[12] are a few examples of the capabilities achieved by Iran during this period.
IRAN’S CONFRONTATIONS WITH THE WORLD
12. Iran has been under the suspicious eyes of the international community, particularly the west and USA mainly for three reasons. They are;
(a) Iran’s support for international terrorism.
(b) Creation of Weapons of Mass Destruction.
(c) Iran’s nuclear programme aimed at creating nuclear weapons.
Iran and International Terrorism
13. Iran is designated as an active sponsor of international terrorism by the US State Department[13]. According to the US state department report of 2011, Iran has increased its terrorist related activities in recent times. It alleges that Iran continues to provide financial, material, and logistical support for terrorist and militant groups throughout the Middle East and Central Asia. Despite its pledge to support the stabilization of Iraq, Iran is believed to provide lethal support, including weapons, training, funding, and guidance, to Iraqi Shia militant groups targeting U.S. and Iraqi forces, as well as civilians.
14. Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), whose main objective is to safeguard Iran’s territorial integrity, is widely believed to sponsor and assist terrorist organisations in the region. IRGC has over the years trained Afghans, Iraqi Shias, Lebanese shias and Kurds (particularly Iraqi Kurds) in use of arms. They have actively supported establishment and activities of Hizballah in Lebanon, Iraqi Kurdistan, Jordan and Palestine, and the Islamic Jihad in many other Moslem countries including Egypt, Turkey, Chechnya and in Caucasus[14]. Iran’s support to Hamas and sponsoring of armed activities aimed at Israel are well known. Iran’s sponsoring of Hamas and its adverse effects on Palestine-Israel relations was highlighted even by the Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas in 2009 during interactions with media[15]. Iran has all the while maintained that it has no links with any terrorist organisations. Iran has disregarded foreign allegations as organized efforts to bring ill repute to the nation and sabotage its economic and industrial growth.
Weapons of Mass Destruction
15. Biological Weapons. A report by the US State Department in 2005 claimed that Iran had started work on an offensive biological weapon programme. The report also mentioned about the growing maturity of the programme and the development of systems to deliver these weapons through various means[16]. Iran has a very developed biotech industry for medicinal and scientific purposes. The industry also has access to a number of dangerous pathogens and has the capability to produce biological weapons[17]. But so is the case with most of the advanced nations. Conclusive proof on a biological weapon programme is not yet available.
16. Chemical Weapons. There have been many reports over the past decades about Iran manufacturing and stockpiling chemical weapons and the necessary artillery to deliver them. However latest reports by international agencies and US intelligence do not specify about Iranian chemical weapon capability. Nonetheless, it can be assumed that the chemical industry in Iran has the capability to produce chemical weapons.
IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAMME
17. Iran ratified the NPT in the early 70s, when she was aligned with the Western powers. Iran’s nuclear research programme which had commenced in 1951 with assistance from USA came to a halt in 1979 following the Islamic Revolution and the withdrawal of US assistance. The nuclear programme was revived in late 80s after the end of the Iran-Iraq war. With no assistance expected from the west and USA, Iran had to turn towards Russia and even Pakistan for technological assistance. First Iranian nuclear power plant was officially opened on 12 Sep 11 with Russian assistance[18] and a road map for opening more reactors were put into place. Full details of the Iranian nuclear programme have always been shrouded in mystery with the country not opening up to the world about its intentions, particularly on its obligations under the NPT. This led to the international community raising serious concern about the nuclear programme being pursued by Iran. Absence of cordial relations between Iran and the West and Iran’s general isolation in the middle east were other important factors that led to these developments.
18. In the face of growing global pressure, Iran allowed itself to be inspected by international agencies. In 2002, the IAEA began investigating allegations that Iran had conducted clandestine nuclear activities. It was found that the safe guard agreements as highlighted in the NPT were violated by some of Iran’s activities. The report neither confirmed that the country’s nuclear program was exclusively for peaceful purposes nor could bring out that Iran had a nuclear weapon programme. Based on IAEA report of 2006, UNSC adopted resolutions which required Iran to take necessary action to alleviate the concerns of the world[19].
19. President Ahmadinejad formally kicked off a heavy-water production plant in Arak, 120 miles southwest of Tehran, in 2006 which gave Iran the capability of obtaining plutonium, a fuel used in nuclear weapons[20]. In 2007, Iran went back on a previous agreement with UK, France and Germany by which she had agreed to suspend enrichment activities and implement additional protocol to IAEA safeguards agreements. Iran declared that she had the right to pursue her own civilian nuclear programme without any restrictions. The US National Intelligence Estimate of 2007 stated that Iran pursued a secret nuclear weapons programme which was halted in 2003. An IAEA report on Iran in Nov 11 also corroborated these findings[21]. As per this report, the key components of the nuclear weapons programme included the following:-
(a) Fissile material production.
(b) High Explosives Testing.
(c) Warhead Design Verification.
20. Though the report concluded that the weapons programme had stopped in 2003, it resulted in the world community and the UNSC exerting more pressure on Iran to come clean on its nuclear capabilities. This was followed by the next round of sanctions directed against Iran in a bid to halt its nuclear program. Iran on its part maintained that it had no intention of creating a nuclear weapon and that its programme was purely for civilian purposes. Iran declared that it had a right to enrich Uranium that was required for its use and would continue with the Uranium enrichment programme for peaceful purposes.
21. No investigation has conclusively proven that Iran has violated provisions of NPT, though violation of the safeguards agreement has been alleged. Based on analysis of available intelligence, the world along with the western powers agree that no
nuclear weapon programme has been pursued by Iran post 2003[22]. Even while IAEA inspectors were trying to get access to determine whether tests have been carried out on nuclear bomb triggers, Iran announced in Mar 12 that it was building about 3000 advance Uranium Enrichment Centrifuges at its plant at Natanz[23]. The uranium enrichment activities being conducted by Iran are areas of concern as enriched Uranium could be used in nuclear weapons.
COERCION OF IRAN
22. It has been almost conclusively established that Iran does not possess a nuclear weapon. However, there is no conviction in the assumption that Iran will never again attempt to make one. Many of the nations in Iran’s neighbourhood are declared nuclear weapon states or known to possess nuclear weapons. Israel, known to be Iran’s arch enemy in the region, is widely believed to be in possession of nuclear weapons. So there always exists a possibility that Iran may be tempted into making a nuclear weapon for itself. The one country that is most vary of such a development would naturally be Israel. Israel recently warned the world that Iran could make upto four atomic bombs by further enriching the uranium that it has already stockpiled[24]. The world certainly does not want to see another nuclear country in the horizon especially when the safety of the nuclear arsenal could be in doubt considering the volatile situation in the region. Further, a nuclear Iran will certainly flex its muscles to become a regional hegemon, undermining the US and the western interests in the region.
23. The world community, led by USA, has been over the years making efforts to contain Iran and its nuclear ambition through ‘Coercive diplomacy’. Coercion consists of threats of military force, economic sanctions, and diplomatic pressure, all of which have been employed by the United States in Iran.
24. The European nations had earlier initiated efforts to reach a negotiated settlement when in Oct 03, the “EU-3” [25](Great Britain, France, and Germany) and Iranian diplomats had reached an agreement. The Europeans offered economic concessions in exchange for Iran’s unconditional cooperation with the IAEA and accession to the Additional Protocol. By summer of 2004, however, Iran backed out from the deal citing EU-3’s lack of response. Later the USA, Russia and China joined the European efforts. The new initiative, the “EU3+3,” threatened to impose UN sanctions if Iran did not cooperate. Negotiations conducted in 2007 and 2008 failed to achieve desired results. The discussions failed mainly because the demands put forward by Iran – security from attack by USA, access to advanced nuclear technology along with contracts for construction of nuclear plants in Iran by EU – were not acceptable to the EU-3+3.
25. The United States led the efforts to put pressure on Iran through sanctions. Sanctions were imposed by the Security Council in December 2006 for failing to suspend enrichment activities. Other nations were prevented from trading nuclear materials with Iran. Stricter sanctions were approved in March 2007 which also included restrictions or arms sales to Iran. A third round of sanctions was approved in March 2008, including cargo inspections and travel restrictions. None of these efforts achieved the ultimate aim[26]. This was partly because of Iran’s self sufficiency in major spheres of activities and continued support from Russian and China. Russia openly supported Iran’s right to progress its own civilian nuclear programme and gave necessary assistance to Iran thereby reducing the effect of UN sanctions on Iran. Subsequent to the IAEA report of Nov 11 which revealed evidence of Iran’s now halted nuclear weapons programme, further sanctions were imposed on the country.
26. As Iran continues to defy international pressure, war rhetoric by USA and Israel has been gaining momentum over the past few years. Options of exercising surgical strikes and precision munitions to neutralize Iran’s capability too have been doing the rounds in recent years. The threat of force by the vastly superior forces too has not been successful in dissuading Iran from carrying out its plans.
27. Coercive policies, including military threats, UN sanctions, and EU incentive packages, have not achieved success for theoretical reasons as well[27]. It can be argued that the application of coercive diplomacy is more complicated for an alliance of states rather than a single government. Though the United States has led the coercive approach, the efforts were assisted by key European allies who implemented coercion in their own ways, resulting in a fragmented strategy. Further, the United States has failed to sense and utilise the public opinion within Iran and to bring all international actors together to arrive at a unified course of action. Moreover, the U.S. government has not been able to garner sufficient domestic support for its coercive policies toward Iran, especially in view of the already ongoing US military involvement in other countries in the region.
CONCLUSION
28. Iran is yet another of the many nation states in the world whose identity, character and general development have been vandalised by the power games of great powers. For the better part of twentieth century, Iran was a pawn in these power games and decisions by foreign nations had regulated her policies. The cold war era accentuated the impact of this foreign involvement on Iran when mistrust between USA and Soviet Union culminated in an indirect US rule in Iran. It was but natural that her people stood up against foreign influence after a long period of subjugation. The rise of Iranian nationalism in the late twentieth century and Iran’s open defiance of the west
have its origins in deep rooted sentiments against the West and USA. The developed societies of West have over the years never tried to bridge this gap and win the confidence of Iranian population. The actions by these nations to coerce Iran into accepting their demands have only led to greater mistrust and strengthening of Iranian nationalism.
29. Iran in many ways is justified in asserting her right for self sufficiency. The main point of contention between Iran and the world today is its nuclear programme, which she claims to be purely civilian. Some of Iran’s actions, particularly those which support terrorist organisations and activities, have eroded her credibility and are the main reasons why the World views Iran with suspicion.
30. A number of coercive actions have been effected by the UN and the West over the years. It must be admitted that many prominent personnel in the West themselves have raised questions about the genuineness of the necessity for strict actions against Iran. Moreover it is ironic that many of the countries who have accused Iran of violation of NPT, a fact which has not been conclusively proved till date, are themselves seen as not meeting their own obligations towards NPT. In spite of various sanctions that have been imposed on Iran since the early 80s, Iran has continued to grow, and has become more defiant of the West while doing so. Even while the West carried on the policy of isolation of Iran, the latter continued to get support from nations which were opposed to the domination of Western powers. Efforts to contain Iran has not only failed miserably, but also contributed to greater resilience of the Iranian nationalism.
31. It must be admitted that the coercive efforts to rein in the Iranian nuclear programme has not been able to meet its objectives. Today, Iran is not just self sufficient in managing its existing nuclear resources, but has gone ahead to plan more reactors with foreign assistance. The country has embarked on a program of Uranium enrichment, claimed to be for peaceful purposes. Years of strict sanctions to curtail Iran’s nuclear activities have only been able to slow down Iran’s progress in the nuclear field. As Iran continues to grow in every sphere and aims for greater self sufficiency, the effects of West sponsored sanctions will continue to diminish.
RECOMMENDATIONS
32. The election of a new President in Iran, Mr Hasan Rouhani who is seen as a moderate, has provided both Iran and the West an opportunity to get back to discussion tables. To his credit, Mr Rouhani has announced that he will make efforts to engage more effectively with the West[28]. Concerted efforts are required to integrate Iran successfully with the rest of the world. Following are relevant in this regard:-
(a) All nations, particularly the West and the US, must recognise and accept Iran’s right to self sufficiency and her right to independently take decisions on her foreign policy.
(b) The US and West should take the world into confidence while reaching decisions on Iran. The West must not hesitate to seek help from Russia and China, the two countries with veto power in the UNSC who have been supportive of Iran.
(c) The UN must make unbiased and concrete efforts to alleviate the mistrust that has developed between Iran and the West over the past decades. Further, the initiative to convince Iran of its intentions should rest with the West. More than anything else, these efforts should be backed with actions that would gradually win the confidence of Iran and her populace. Withdrawal of sanctions that have put Iran into extreme struggles would be a step in the right direction. It must be understood by the coercive forces that dominating attitude of supremacy will help only to further deepen the already difficult situation.
(d) The world must respect Iran’s right for a civilian nuclear programme. It would be wise to legally provide the country with technical expertise in the field. This would also help to allay the western fears about Iran conducting its own nuclear research.
(e) Provide unconditional assistance to Iranian population by all possible means. This would certainly help in warming of relations and soothing the anti western sentiments that owes its origins to western atrocities in the nation over many decades.
(f) No permanent peace would be possible in the region unless Iran and Israel are brought to discussions. Iran is still to recognise Israel and the enmity between the two states is as old as the birth of Israel. This would be the most challenging of all aspects in the Iranian scenario. Concerted and tactful efforts are to be undertaken by the UN with support from Iran’s friendly nations to engage the two states whose enmity is a threat to the region as a whole.
33. USA in particular has to come to terms with the realities in the region and with the fact that coercion alone cannot win her the day. Military actions would not be the wisest thing to do in the prevailing circumstances. The only way to ensure peace in the region is, effective, unbiased and unprejudiced engagement between the various actors.
[1] Stephen Kinzer, ‘Inside Iran’s Fury’(Smithsonian Magazine, Oct 2008)
[2] Sam Roe, ‘An Atomic Threat Made in America’ (Chicago Tribune, 28 Jan 2007)
[4] Fredrik Dahl and Sylvia Westall, ‘U.N. Nuclear Watchdog Board Rebukes Defiant Iran’ (Reuters,Nov 11)
[5] Fred Halliday, The Middle East in International Relations – Power, Politics and Ideology (New York : Cambridge University Press, 2005), p.101)
[6] Stephen Kinzer, ‘Inside Iran’s Fury’(Smithsonian Magazine, Oct 2008)
[7] Fred Halliday, The Middle East in International Relations – Power, Politics and Ideology (New York : Cambridge University Press, 2005), p.102)
[8] Stephen Kinzer, All the Shah’s Men: An American Coup and the Roots of Middle East Terror (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 2003)
[9] Peter O Hefron, Taken Hostage:The Iran Hostage Crisis and America’s First Encounter with Radical Islam (Journal of Third World Studies, Oct 2006)
[11] Hooman Peimani, Iran and the United States (London : Praeger publishers, 1999), p.38
[15] ‘Special Dispatch 2714 of The Middle East Media Research Institute’ (www.MEMRI.org, 24 Dec 09)
[16] ‘Adherence to and Comliance with Arms Control, Non Proliferation and Disarmament Agreements and Commitments’ (Bureau of Verification and Compliance, US Department of State, 30 Aug 05)
[18] ‘Iran’s First Nuclear Power Plant to Get Official Launch’ (www.edition.CNN.com, 12 Sep 11)
[19] Paul K Kerr, Iran’s Nuclear Program : Tehran’s compliance with International Obligations (CRS report for Congress, Sep 2009) p.1
[20] ‘Timeline on Iran’s Nuclear Program’ (The New York Times, www.nytimes.com)
[22] Paul K Kerr, Iran’s Nuclear Program : Tehran’s compliance with International Obligations (CRS report for Congress, Jul 2013) p.10
[23]‘ Timeline on Iran’s Nuclear Program’ (The New York Times, www.nytimes.com)
[24] Jeffrey Heller, ‘Israel Says Iran Has Material for 4 A- Bombs’ (Reuters, 02 Feb 2012)
[25] ‘History of Official Proposals on the Iranian Nuclear Issue’ (www.armscontrol.org)
[26] Brandan M Boylan, Moving Beyond Coercive Diplomacy : A New Policy Approach Toward Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions(Princeton University, 2009)
[27] Brandan M Boylan, ‘Moving Beyond Coercive Diplomacy : A New Policy Approach Toward Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions’(Princeton University, 2009)
[28] Thomas Erdbrink, ‘Pres-Elect of Iran Says He Will Engage with the West’ (New York times, www.nytimes.com, 29 Jun 13)
